The gloomy view that the stock market is in a bubble is at odds with this positive outlook, but according to Detrick, history is on his side.
According to two stock market indications that Detrick brought to light, which have historically resulted in an average gain of 13% over the following twelve months, the present bull market is not about to come to an end.
The S&P 500's 20% gain in the previous 20 weeks is the first indication. This previous 20 weeks has seen the S&P 500 rise 24%, ranking it among the strongest 20-week rallies in the index's history.
Detrick found 22 additional instances where the S&P 500 gained over 20% in 20 weeks using data that extended back to 1950. With an extraordinarily high victory ratio of 96%, the average one-year return following the signal flashed was 13%.
The S&P 500's 8% year-to-date gain as of the 50th trading day of the year is the second bullish stock market indication identified by Detrick.
We found 25 other times stocks were up at least 5% on day 50 and the rest of the year was up an incredible 24 times and up 12.6% on average the rest of the year versus the average return of 7.6%," said Detrick.
These indications point to the beginning, rather than the end, of the bull market advance in equities, according to Detrick.
This strength off of the late October lows is actually consistent with the beginning of longer-term market strength, not the end of bull markets," said Detrick.
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